Key takeaways:
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Since 2024, ETF inflows and outflows have been the primary determinants of Bitcoin’s daily fluctuations.
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With exchange balances hitting multi-year lows, large orders impact the market more significantly.
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Major holders frequently segment their trades or utilize OTC desks, which lessens the visible “wallet movement” effects.
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Factors such as funding rates, open interest, the dollar, and yields tend to influence price direction more than any single wallet.
It’s widely understood that whales can influence Bitcoin (BTC) prices, especially when they make large movements.
Since the introduction of spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs), Bitcoin’s price trajectory increasingly depends on ETF inflows and outflows, as well as the amount of available supply on exchanges rather than the actions of any single wallet. For example, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) now manages over 800,000 BTC for its numerous investors, making its flows comparable to those of individual holders.
When you factor in derivatives positioning and the general risk appetite, a clearer picture emerges.
This guide demystifies the myths surrounding whale activity, clarifies the key mechanics of the market, and provides a concise checklist of data so you can interpret the market movements without needing to follow every “whale movement” alert.
What counts as a “whale?”
In the cryptocurrency space, a whale is generally defined as an on-chain entity with at least 1,000 BTC. Many analytics platforms specifically monitor the 1,000 BTC-5,000 BTC range.
An entity consists of multiple addresses controlled by the same owner rather than a single wallet. Analytics companies use techniques like co-spending and change detection to ensure one holder isn’t miscounted over various deposits.
This distinction is crucial, as simple “rich list” address tallies can inflate concentration figures. Large entities like exchanges, ETF custodians, and payment processors often manage thousands of wallets, and analyzing these clusters separately aids in distinguishing them from individual investors. Both academic and industry studies have consistently warned against relying solely on address data for conclusions.
Different methodologies are employed. Some whale metrics include service entities like exchanges, ETFs, or custody pools, while others focus solely on true investor whales by excluding known exchange and miner clusters.
In this guide, we adhere to an entity-based definition of ≥1,000 BTC and clearly indicate when service wallets are either included or excluded, ensuring clarity in what each metric represents.
Did you know? The number of entities holding at least 1,000 BTC has recently exceeded 1,670, the highest since early 2021.
How concentrated is BTC today, and who holds it?
Since the launch of U.S. spot ETFs, a significant portion of Bitcoin supply has moved into custody pools. BlackRock’s IBIT is now the largest known holder, managing around 800,000 BTC, but this is on behalf of many investors, not as a singular balance.
Collectively, U.S. spot ETFs hold about 1.66 million BTC, which is roughly 6.4% of Bitcoin’s total supply of 21 million. This concentration allows for streamlined execution, though true ownership remains broadly distributed.
Corporations are also significant holders, with MicroStrategy recently revealing its ownership of about 640,000 BTC. Miners, exchanges, and unclassified long-term holders form the remaining largest clusters.
Meanwhile, the available supply on centralized exchanges is diminishing. According to Glassnode, tracked exchange balances decreased to approximately 2.83 million BTC in early October 2025, a six-year low. With fewer coins on exchanges, larger orders have a greater capacity to influence prices.
Keep in mind that “top address” lists can exaggerate concentration, as large services maintain many wallets. An entity-level approach that clusters and labels wallets belonging to ETFs, exchanges, and corporations offers a more accurate view of who controls the coins.
Did you know? U.S. spot ETFs now manage over 1.6 million BTC, constituting just over 6% of the institutional and fund-held total supply.
Can whales flip the market intraday?
Large aggressive orders can substantially impact prices, particularly when order-book depth is low. During periods of volatility, liquidity often diminishes, allowing substantial sell orders to move through the book with considerable effect. This is fundamental market behavior.
As a consequence, many large holders avoid “hitting the book.” They often break orders into smaller parts or utilize over-the-counter (OTC) desks to execute transactions discreetly, minimizing their market footprint and potential information leakage. In reality, a considerable amount of whale activity occurs off-exchange, reducing the visible effects of any individual wallet on public platforms.
Across market cycles, whales do not always create upward price movements. Research combining exchange and on-chain data indicates that large holders frequently sell into market strength, particularly when smaller traders are active buyers. Their selling can dampen rallies instead of igniting them.
A snapshot from 2025 reflects this trend: As prices surpassed $120,000 amid strong ETF inflows and broad accumulation, “mega-whales” took profits incrementally. Intraday price direction was often influenced more by ETF flows and available liquidity than by any one whale’s actions.
Did you know? A notable “OG” whale recently sold thousands of BTC to acquire nearly $4 billion in Ether (ETH).
What truly drives markets green or red on most days?
Since January 2024, spot ETF flows have emerged as one of Bitcoin’s most dependable daily indicators. Strong weekly inflows generally correspond to price increases, while weak or negative prints are often aligned with down days. Pairing this data with a live flow dashboard can help track the daily leanings of U.S. ETFs.
Liquidity on exchanges is equally crucial. With balances on centralized exchanges dwindling to about 2.83 million BTC, there is now less immediate tradable supply. Reduced liquidity implies that even standard buy or sell orders have a more pronounced effect on the order book, increasing price volatility across all types of participants.
Market positioning and leverage frequently drive intraday price shifts. When funding rates turn rich or deeply negative and open interest (OI) begins to rebuild after liquidations, the market’s trajectory can change rapidly.
It’s important to continue observing funding and OI to assess crowding. Recently, with about 97% of supply in profit and a slight moderation in long-term holder distribution, markets have become increasingly sensitive to new flow and news.
Lastly, macroeconomic factors significantly influence crypto movements. Trends in the dollar, U.S. yields, and overall risk appetite typically align with Bitcoin’s daily price direction. On quieter data days, market ranges tend to tighten; when macro conditions intensify, crypto usually follows suit.
Quick checklist
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ETF flows: Monitor yesterday’s net inflows/outflows and overall turnover.
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Liquidity: Observe trends in exchange balances and order book depth across major venues.
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Positioning: Analyze funding-rate heatmaps and OI trends following liquidations.
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Macro tape: Keep an eye on the dollar index, 10-year yields, and equity market breadth.
Do whales still set Bitcoin’s tone for the day?
Whales can influence prices, yet they seldom dictate the day’s overall outcome. In times of limited liquidity, a single substantial order can exert an unusually strong influence. Most major holders currently divide their transactions into smaller segments or execute them through OTC desks, which reduces the visible effects on public order books.
Since 2024, spot ETF flows have been the principal driver of daily market direction, in conjunction with the high trading volumes within those funds. Analyzing the previous day’s net flows and turnover provides a clearer sense of market bias.
With the available supply on exchanges at multi-year lows, even small buyers or sellers—whether they are whales, market makers, or retail participants—can shift prices more significantly than usual. Larger holders often sell into market strength instead of creating upward momentum, a trend that typically caps rallies rather than fuels them.
Macro factors continue to influence much of the market activity. Changes in the dollar and U.S. yields impact risk appetite, which in turn drives Bitcoin in the same direction.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
